CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-06-26T21:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-06-26T21:12ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47105/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2 starting around 2026-06-26T21:12Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The most likely source candidate for this CME is a region of southward directed dimming best seen in SDO AIA 195 starting around 2026-06-26T17:34Z centered around S30E05. There is also some field line movement likely associated with this dimming over the S limb best seen in SDO AIA 171 beginning around 2026-06-26T20:06Z and in GOES SUVI 284 beginning around 2026-06-26T19:49Z. A much less likely source candidate for this CME is associated with a C2.4 class flare from AR 14475 (S09W04) that peaked at 2026-06-26T20:21Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, but the eruption followed by some post eruptive arcades is best seen in SDO AIA 304 and SDO AIA 195. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-06-30T11:01Z to 10nT at 2026-06-30T11:22Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~340 km/s at 2026-06-30T11:01Z to 437 km/s at 2026-06-30T11:07Z. Increases in temperature, from ~65,000 K to ~430,000 K, and density, from ~1 p/cc to 11 p/cc, are also observed at 2026-06-30T11:01Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-30T11:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-30T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2026 Jun 28 1231 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 60628 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jun 2026, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jun 2026 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jun 2026 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jun 2026 10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 016 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C7.4 flare (SIDC Flare 8035) peaking on June 27 at 21:02 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 899 (NOAA Active Region 4475). A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 886 (NOAA Active Region 4478) (Beta-gamma-delta) and SIDC Sunspot Group 899 (NOAA Active Region 4475) (beta gamma) are the most complex active regions and in charge of the majority of the C-class flaring of the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a M-class flares very likely. Coronal mass ejections: The CME that was first seen in LASCO C2 from 21:15 UTC June 26 is mainly directed towards the south but still has a Earth directed component. The arrival of the associated ICME is expected for June 30. Coronal holes: A large mid-latitude to equatorial positive polarity coronal hole started crossing central meridian with the mid-latitude extension, and may enhance solar wind conditions around July 1. Solar wind: Solar wind conditions near Earth have returned to slow solar wind, with speeds around 450 km/s, magnetic field around 3nT and the minimum Bz reaching -2nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24h. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were quite globally (Kp 2) and quite to unsettled locally (Kbel 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold for the last 24 hours, and is expected to remain above the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 150, BASED ON 19 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Jun 2026 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 188 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010 AK WINGST : 009 ESTIMATED AP : 008 ESTIMATED ISN : 127, BASED ON 24 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES NONE END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # #Lead Time: 22.20 hour(s)
Difference: -0.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-29T12:49Z
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